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On 10 August 2020, a derecho caused widespread damage across Iowa and Illinois. Des Moines station data show that the arrival of the gust front was characterized by an abrupt shift to northerly flow, exceeding 22 m/s for ~ 20 min. To test the hypothesis that this northerly jet is associated with a horizontal potential vorticity (PV) dipole in the lower troposphere, we investigated the structure of PV in the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostratic Modeling System (UWNMS) and of absolute vorticity in High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast analyses.

This structure is described here for the first time. The negative PV member coincides with the downdraft, while the positive PV member coincides with the updraft, with a northerly jet between. The westerly inflow jet descends anticyclonically in the downdraft, joining with northerly flow from the surface anticyclone. The resulting northerly outflow jet creates the trailing comma-shaped radar echo.

The speed of propagation of the derecho is similar to the westerly wind maximum in the 3-5 km layer associated with the approaching synoptic cyclone, which acts as a steering level for resonant amplification. Idealized diagrams and 3D isosurfaces illustrate the commonality of the PV dipole / northerly jet structure. Differences in this structure among three model states are related to low-level wind shear theory. The PV dipole coincides with the pattern of diabatic stretching tendency, which shifts westward and downward relative to the updraft/downdraft with increasing tilt. The PV dipole can contribute toward dynamical stability in a derecho.

 

On 10 August 2020, a derecho caused widespread damage across Iowa and Illinois. Des Moines station data show that the arrival of the gust front was characterized by an abrupt shift to northerly flow, exceeding 22 m/s for ~ 20 min. To test the hypothesis that this northerly jet is associated with a horizontal potential vorticity (PV) dipole in the lower troposphere, we investigated the structure of PV in the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostratic Modeling System (UWNMS) and of absolute vorticity in High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast analyses. This structure is described here for the first time. The negative PV member coincides with the downdraft, while the positive PV member coincides with the updraft, with a northerly jet between. The westerly inflow jet descends anticyclonically in the downdraft, joining with northerly flow from the surface anticyclone. The resulting northerly outflow jet creates the trailing comma-shaped radar echo. The speed of propagation of the derecho is similar to the westerly wind maximum in the 3-5 km layer associated with the approaching synoptic cyclone, which acts as a steering level for resonant amplification. Idealized diagrams and 3D isosurfaces illustrate the commonality of the PV dipole / northerly jet structure. Differences in this structure among three model states are related to low-level wind shear theory. The PV dipole coincides with the pattern of diabatic stretching tendency, which shifts westward and downward relative to the updraft/downdraft with increasing tilt. The PV dipole can contribute toward dynamical stability in a derecho. 

The present study investigates dynamical coupling between the equatorial stratospheric Quasi31 biennial oscillation (QBO) and the boreal winter surface climate of the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitudes using 42 years data (1979–2020). For neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periods, QBO westerlies (W) at 70 hPa favor high sea level pressure in the polar region, colder conditions and deeper snow over Eurasia and North America, and the opposite effects for QBO easterlies (E). When QBO anomalies arrive in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), it is observed that planetary wave activity is enhanced in the extratropical UTLS during QBO W and diminished during QBO E. This QBO teleconnection pathway along the UTLS to the high latitude surface is independent of the “stratospheric pathway” (Holton-Tan mechanism). Diagnosis of this pathway can help to improve understanding of internal sub-seasonal to seasonal variations, and long-range forecasting over Eurasia and North America. 

The influence of solar forcing and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) ionization on the global distribution of clouds is investigated using 42 years ERA-5 data (1979–2020). In the mid-latitudes over Eurasia, GCR and cloudiness are negatively correlated, which argues against the ionization theory of enhanced cloud droplet nucleation due to increased GCR during minima in the solar cycle. In the tropics, the solar cycle and cloudiness are positively correlated in regional Walker circulations below 2 km altitude. The phase relationship between amplification of regional tropical circulations and the solar cycle is consistent with total solar forcing, rather than modulation of GCR. However, in the intertropical convergence zone, changes in the cloud distribution are consistent with a positive coupling with GCR in the free atmosphere (2–6 km). This study opens some future challenges and research directions, and clarifies how atmospheric circulation at the regional scale can help in understanding solar-induced climate variability.

 

Abstract The role of differential advection in creating tropopause folds and strong constituent gradients near midlatitude westerly jets is investigated using the University of Wisconsin Non-hydrostatic Modeling System (UWNMS). Dynamical structures are compared with aircraft observations through a fold and subpolar jet (SPJ) during RF04 of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Analyses of Regional Transport (START08) campaign. The observed distribution of water vapor and ozone during RF04 provides evidence of rapid transport in the SPJ, enhancing constituent gradients above relative to below the intrusion. The creation of a tropopause fold by quasi-isentropic differential advection on the upstream side of the trough is described. This fold was created by a southward jet streak in the SPJ, where upper tropospheric air displaced the tropopause eastward in the 6-10 km layer, thereby overlying stratospheric air in the 3-6 km layer. The subsequent superposition of the subtropical and subpolar jets is also shown to result from quasi-isentropic differential advection. The occurrence of low values of ozone, water vapor, and potential vorticity on the equatorward side of the SPJ can be explained by convective transport of low-ozone air from the boundary layer, dehydration in the updraft, and detrainment of inertially-unstable air in the outflow layer. An example of rapid juxtaposition with stratospheric air in the jet core is shown for RF01. The net effect of upstream convective events is suggested as a fundamental cause of the strong constituent gradients observed in midlatitude jets. Idealized diagrams illustrate the role of differential advection in creating tropopause folds and constituent gradient enhancement. 

The joint influence of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the polar vortex, subtropical westerly jets (STJs), and wave patterns during boreal winter is investigated in 40 years (1979–2018) of monthly mean ERA‐Interim reanalyses. The method of Wallace et al. (1993),https://doi.org/10.1175/15200469(1993)050<1751:ROTESQ>2.0.CO;2is used to conduct a QBO phase angle sweep. QBO westerly (W) and easterly (E) composites are then segregated by the phase of ENSO. Two pathways are described by which the QBO mean meridional circulation (MMC) influences the northern winter hemisphere. The “stratospheric pathway” modulates stratospheric planetary wave absorption via the Holton‐Tan mechanism. The “tropospheric pathway” modulates the tropical and subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. QBO MMC anomalies exhibit a checkerboard pattern in temperature and arched structures in zonal wind which extend into midlatitudes, and are stronger on the winter side. During QBO W, the polar vortex and STJs are enhanced. QBO signals in the polar vortex are amplified during La Niña. During El Niño and QBO W, the strongest STJs occur, and a warm pole/wave two pattern is found. During El Niño and QBO E, a trough is found over Eurasia and a ridge over the North Atlantic, in a wave one pattern. El Niño diminishes QBO anomalies in the tropical stratosphere and reduces the poleward extent and amplitude of the QBO MMC, thereby influencing the stratospheric pathway. Effects on the boreal winter hemisphere are attributed to the combined influence of the QBO and ENSO via both pathways.

 

Abstract The stalling and rapid destruction of a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) by convectively detrained inertially unstable air is described. On 20 August 2018, 10–15 in. (~0.3–0.4 m) of rain fell on western Dane County, Wisconsin, primarily during 0100–0300 UTC 21 August (1900–2100 CDT 20 August), leading to extreme local flooding. Dynamical aspects are investigated using the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostratic Modeling System (UWNMS). Results are compared with available radiosonde, radar, total rainfall estimates, satellite infrared, and high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses. Using ECMWF analyses, the formation of the UTLS PV anomaly is traced to its origin a week earlier in a PV streamer over the west coast of North America. The rainfall maximum over southern Wisconsin was associated with this PV anomaly, whereby convection forming in the warm-upglide sector rotated cyclonically into the region. The quasi-stationarity of this rainfall feature was aided by a broad northeastward surge of inertially unstable convective outflow air into southeastern Wisconsin, which coincided with stalling of the eastward progression of the PV anomaly and its diversion into southern Wisconsin, extending heavy rainfall for several hours. Cessation of rainfall coincided with dilution of the PV maximum in less than an hour (2100–2200 CDT), associated with the arrival of negative PV in the upper troposphere. The region of negative PV was created when convection over Illinois transported air with low wind speed into northeastward shear. This feature is diagnosed using the convective momentum transport hypothesis. 

Observations of temperature and wind velocity in the 30–40-km altitude layer have been sparse since elimination of the standard rocketsonde sounding network in the 1990s. In an effort to extend the vertical range of radiosonde observations into the upper stratosphere, experiments were conducted with a 3-kg balloon at Tsukuba, Japan, on 5 November 2019. Using this relatively inexpensive balloon technology, four radiosondes were launched, with two reaching above 40-km altitude. These profiles were compared with satellite and reanalysis data in the 30–40-km layer, which showed an overall good agreement and an ability of radiosondes to capture shorter vertical-scale variations. The ability to quantify gravity wave parameters from the data is described, with application to wave events detected near 38–40 km. This type of balloon will be deployed extensively in an upcoming intensive observation campaign over the Maritime Continent, which will contribute toward achieving standard radiosonde observations in the 30–40-km altitude range. This system extends the ability to provide information regarding gravity wave and planetary wave activity upward to ∼40 km.